Ian became the ninth named storm of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season on Friday evening. Even though Ian struggled to strengthen over the last two days, it finally became a hurricane early this morning. While it is the fourth hurricane in the Atlantic this year, it will be the first to impact the U.S. mainland.
Favorable conditions will lead to its rapid intensification over the next couple of days, where Ian is forecast to become a major hurricane prior to reaching the southwestern coast of Cuba on Tuesday morning.
Finally reaching hurricane status, Ian is producing maximum sustained wind speeds of 75 mph. It is moving toward the northwest, but will turn more toward Cuba later today into tonight. As it continues to move in this direction, it will encounter favorable conditions, allowing it to strengthen rapidly.
The center of Ian will soon pass just west of the Cayman Islands this morning before reaching western Cuba on Tuesday morning, potentially as a major hurricane. With that, it will bring significant impacts to the Cayman Islands and western Cuba over the next 24 to 48 hours.
Ian will continue to strengthen as it enters into the Gulf midweek, bringing tropical storm conditions to the Florida Keys and parts of southern Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday. It will eventually make landfall along the Florida Gulf coast later this week, making it the first to directly hit the U.S. this season.
While there is still uncertainty in both the track and intensity once it enters the eastern Gulf of Mexico, Ian will impact Florida with strong winds, heavy rainfall and the potential for storm surge later this week.
Prior to it reaching the U.S. mainland, Ian will continue to bring hurricane and tropical storm conditions to the Cayman Islands today into tonight. As it heads north and strengthens, it will lash western Cuba on Tuesday with powerful winds and heavy downpours.
Along with heavy rainfall and hurricane-force winds, both islands could also be impacted with flash flooding and the potential for mudslides in higher terrain areas, particularly for parts of Cuba.
As Ian becomes a major hurricane, there is also increasing confidence that it will bring life-threatening storm surge to portions of western Cuba beginning late Monday night.
Additional strengthening is possible as Ian enters the Gulf later Tuesday into Wednesday. Heading toward the northeast, it will likely bring tropical storm conditions to Dry Tortugas, the Lower Florida Keys and parts of southern Florida.
These impacts will likely intensify and spread up the Florida peninsula as Ian moves closer to the coast, where it will eventually make landfall.
Hurricane Warnings remain in effect for Grand Cayman and the western tip of Cuba, with Tropical Storm Warnings in effect for the lower Florida Keys and west-central Cuba.
Tropical Storm Watches also remain in effect for parts of the southwestern Florida coast, in addition to the islands of Little Cayman and Cayman Brac, while Hurricane Watches are now in effect for the central Florida Gulf Coast, including the Tampa Bay area.
Outer bands from Ian will begin impacting the Florida Keys as early as Tuesday.
While there’s uncertainty regarding where Ian will make landfall, Florida still has the highest likelihood for landfall in the U.S. Based on the latest data and model consensus, it appears Ian’s track shifted slightly west, pushing the location for landfall farther north along the Florida west coast, or even along the Florida Panhandle.
However, any shift in the track will affect where and when Ian makes landfall in the U.S. Impacts can and do occur outside the forecast cone.
Regardless, Floridians and people who live along the Gulf Coast should closely monitor updates on Ian.
Spaghetti models or plots show a series of individual computer forecast models together on one map. They are useful to give insight into whether multiple models are in agreement on the path of the storm but they do not address the storm’s forecast intensity, winds, flooding and storm surge potential or other data. Tap here for more details on how to best use these models.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic, there is one other disturbance with potential to develop.
See how the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season has gone so far.
