Ian became the ninth named storm of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season on Friday evening. Even though Ian struggled to strengthen over the weekend, it finally became a hurricane early Monday morning. While it is the fourth hurricane in the Atlantic this year, it will be the first to impact the U.S. mainland.
Favorable conditions will lead to its rapid intensification over the next couple of days, and Ian is forecast to become a major hurricane prior to reaching the southwestern coast of Cuba on Tuesday morning.
Ian’s estimated sustained winds have been steadily increasing as the storm intensifies, now reaching 100 mph.
It is moving toward the north-northwest toward western Cuba where it’ll make landfall early Tuesday, potentially as a major hurricane.
Ian will continue to strengthen as it moves into the Gulf, bringing tropical storm conditions to the Florida Keys and parts of southwest Florida Tuesday and Wednesday. It will eventually make landfall along the Florida Gulf coast later this week, making it the first to directly hit the U.S. this season.
While there is still uncertainty in both the track and intensity once it enters the eastern Gulf of Mexico, Ian will impact Florida with strong winds, heavy rainfall and storm surge later this week.
Intense winds will cause widespread damage as Ian passes over western Cuba, and heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding and the potential for mudslides in higher terrain areas are expected.
Ian will keep strengthening after it enters the Gulf later Tuesday into Wednesday. Heading toward the northeast, it will likely bring tropical storm conditions to Dry Tortugas, the Lower Florida Keys and parts of southern Florida.
These impacts will likely intensify and spread up the Florida peninsula as Ian moves closer to the coast, where it will eventually make landfall.
Hurricane Warnings remain in effect for the western tip of Cuba, the Dry Tortugas and Englewood to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay.
Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for parts of west-central Cuba, the Lower Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge westward to Key West and Flamingo to Englewood.
Hurricane Watches are in effect north of Anclote River to the Suwannee River, and Bonita Beach to Englewood.
Tropical Storm Watches are in effect in the Florida Keys from the Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5 Bridge, Lake Okeechobee, north of the Suwannee River to Indian Pass and Jupiter Inlet to Altamaha Sound.
Life-threatening storm surge will hit portions of western Cuba later Monday into Monday night. Storm surge will also be a concern along the Florida Gulf coast as Ian draws near.
Storm surge could raise water levels 9 to 14 feet above normal tide levels in western Cuba, parts of the Florida could also be inundated with water levels reaching up to 5 to 10 feet above ground level in some places along the immediate coast.
Given this potential, a Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the Florida Gulf Coast extending from Tampa Bay to the Anclote River southward to Flamingo.
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the Florida Keys, Florida Bay, the Aucilla River to Anclote River, Saint Johns River and Altamaha Sound to the Flagler/Volusia County line.
Outer bands from Ian will begin impacting the Florida Keys as early as Tuesday.
While there’s uncertainty regarding where Ian will make landfall, Florida’s Gulf Coast still has the highest likelihood for landfall in the U.S.
Based on the latest data and model consensus, it appears Ian’s track shifted slightly east since the weekend, pushing the location for landfall farther north along the Florida west coast, or even along the Florida Panhandle.
However, any shift in the track will affect where and when Ian makes landfall in the U.S. Impacts can and do occur outside the forecast cone.
Regardless, Floridians and people who live along the Gulf Coast should closely monitor updates on Ian.
Spaghetti models or plots show a series of individual computer forecast models together on one map. They are useful to give insight into whether multiple models are in agreement on the path of the storm but they do not address the storm’s forecast intensity, winds, flooding and storm surge potential or other data. Tap here for more details on how to best use these models.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic, there is one other disturbance with potential to develop.
See how the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season has gone so far.
