Hurricane Hunters have found that Ian has continued to intensify early Wednesday with top estimated sustained winds of 155 mph, just below Category 5 strength.
Increasing wind shear upon landfall could result is some fluctuations in intensity prior to moving over, but it will remain a major hurricane. Hurricane-force winds are expected to begin in southwest Florida on Wednesday morning.
It will make landfall along the southwest Florida coast on Wednesday, making it the first hurricane to directly hit the mainland U.S. this season.
Along with hurricane-force winds and dangerous storm surge, heavy rainfall could lead to significant flooding around central Florida through the end of the week.
Hurricane conditions will begin along the southwest Florida Gulf Coast this morning and spread inland to the rest of the peninsula Wednesday and Thursday.
Hurricane Warnings remain in effect for a good portion of the Florida Gulf Coast extending inland to parts of Central Florida. Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches are in effect for the rest of the peninsula, the Florida Keys and along the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina.
Other places under Tropical Storm Warnings include western Cuba and parts of the Bahamas.
In addition, storm surge will also be a concern along the southwest Florida Gulf Coast as Ian draws near in the days ahead.
Parts of southwest Florida could be inundated with high water levels. Potential storm surge could reaach as high as 12 to 16 feet above ground level from Englewood to Bonita Beach, Fla. North of the hurricane, surge levels will be lower.
A Storm Surge Warning remains in effect along most of Florida’s west coast, as well as Florida’s Atlantic coast for the Flagler/Volusia County line to the mouth of the St. Mary’s River, and the St. Johns River.
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the Florida Keys, Florida Bay and the mouth of St. Mary’s River to South Santee River.
Along with all the other impacts, strong thunderstorms embedded in Ian’s outer bands could spin up tornadoes. The threat will spread up the peninsula as the hurricane moves north on Wednesday.
Extremely heavy rain will lead to flooding. Some areas could receive more than a foot of rain. In those areas, damage from the flooding may be severe.
Ian is on track to make landfall in southwest Florida. It has continued to shift south and east since the weekend, pushing the location for landfall farther south of Tampa Bay.
Even though the southern track is better news for Tampa and the west-central Florida coast in regards to top winds and storm surge, impacts can and do occur outside the forecast cone.
Ian’s center may move back over water before curving back toward the Carolinas.
Spaghetti models or plots show a series of individual computer forecast models together on one map. They are useful to give insight into whether multiple models are in agreement on the path of the storm but they do not address the storm’s forecast intensity, winds, flooding and storm surge potential or other data. Tap here for more details on how to best use these models.
Ian’s history
Ian became the ninth named storm of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season on the evening of Sept. 23. Even though it was slow to strengthen, Ian underwent rapid intensification once it become a hurricane on Monday.
Ian made landfall as a major hurricane just southwest of La Coloma, a town in the Pinar del Rio Province of Cuba around 4:30 a.m. on Tuesday morning.
Ian weakened slightly after passing over western Cuba, but still maintained its major hurricane status as it moved north into the Gulf. After completing an eyewall replacement cycle Tuesday night, Ian became a Category 4 hurricane early Wednesday morning.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic, there is one other disturbance with potential to develop.
See how the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season has gone so far.
