Idalia is still a Category 2 hurricane but continues to strengthen. It’s expected to reach major hurricane status soon.
Idalia is forecast to make landfall in Florida on Wednesday as a major hurricane.
Hurricane and Storm Surge Warnings are in effect along northern and central portions of the Florida Gulf Coast, including Tampa Bay. Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches now extend along Florida’s northern and central coast up through Georgia and the Carolinas.
Dozens of counties are in a state of emergency to prepare for the hurricane and some airports are suspending operations until the threat passes.
Sitting west of Florida’s west coast, Idalia is producing maximum sustained wind speeds of 105 mph. It will continue to head north, where favorable environmental conditions over the Gulf of Mexico will help it strengthen through Wednesday morning.
Idalia is forecast to become a major hurricane early Wednesday.
Trends have been focusing a landfall on Florida’s Big Bend or northern part of the Nature Coast.
According to the National Weather Service in Tallahassee, no major hurricanes since records began in 1851 have tracked into Apalachee Bay. A landfall there would be unprecedented in modern times.
And we’re already feeling the effects of Idalia, with squalls spreading across Florida. Tornado Warnings have already popped up within these storms.
Computer forecast model guidance agrees that it will also affect other parts of the Southeast this week.
Spaghetti models show it tracking up from Florida to the Carolinas.
Spaghetti models or plots show a series of individual computer forecast models together on one map. They are useful to give insight into whether multiple models are in agreement on the path of the storm, but they do not address the storm’s forecast intensity, winds, flooding and storm surge potential or other data. Tap here for more details on how to best use these models.
Hurricane Warnings and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect up and down Florida’s west coast.
On Florida’s east coast, Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect.
Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina also have Hurricane Watches Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches in effect.
Storm surge
Storm surge will also be a threat to areas along Florida’s Gulf Coast. Bay News 9 Meteorologist Juli Marquez states that, “astronomical tides will be high with a full moon, so storm surge will be more impactful.”
Storm Surge Warnings are in effect from Englewood northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay.
Storm Surge Watches are also in effect for the Florida Gulf Coast from Chokoloskee to Englewood and the mouth of the St. Mary’s River to South Santee River in South Carolina.
The most significant storm surge is expected toward the Big Bend region. If it happens near high tide, storm surge could reach above 12 feet above ground level. This is comparable to what happened during Hurricane Ian in the Fort Myers area.
Rainfall
Heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be possible across Florida and the Southeast as Idalia moves inland. The highest rainfall totals are forecast to stretch from the Florida Panhandle and western coast through the Carolinas. Totals in some areas ought to exceed 6 inches.
As a result, a stripe of Flood Watches are in place.
Along with the possibility of hurricane-force winds and all the other impacts mentioned above, Idalia could also spin up tornadoes as the storm tracks over the Southeast.
Check here for a look at the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season so far.
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