Colorado State University updated its outlook for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season on Thursday, June 2. Their researchers continue to expect above-normal tropical activity this year.
The CSU tropical forecast, led by Dr. Phil Klotzbach, calls for 20 tropical storms. The team at CSU is forecasting 10 of those to become hurricanes, including five major hurricanes, which are a Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
CSU’s first forecast for the season, issued in early April, called for 19 named storms, including nine hurricanes and four major hurricanes. Forecasters for NOAA’s outlook, which came out in May, also anticipate another above-average season.
Since there’s always uncertainty in a tropical season forecast, CSU also gives a range of numbers of storms where 70% of forecasts fall. That gives 17 to 23 named storms, eight to 12 hurricanes and three to seven major hurricanes.
With the above-average activity forecast overall, the CSU team also foresees the chances of a major hurricane landfall in the U.S. to be higher than the long-term average.
Accumulated Cyclone Energy, which factors the number of storms and their duration and intensity, is forecast to be 180, compared to an average of 123.
Researchers look at a variety of factors to make their prediction, but they’re homed in on a couple in particular.
First, La Niña conditions are now forecast to last into at least the summer. Second, sea surface temperatures are currently warmer than average in the tropical and subtropical Atlantic, and near average in the Caribbean. CSU forecasters believe that the relatively warm waters will continue.
Forecasters also looked back at six seasons with similar conditions–1996, 1999, 2000, 2008, 2011 and 2021–to guide their predictions.
Remember that predictions of the season’s activity are not predictions of exactly how many storms will make landfall in a particular place. Individual storms make impacts, regardless of how active (or not) a season is. Coastal residents should do what they can to be prepared every year.
This forecast comes after last year’s busy season that included 21 named storms, although nine of them were so-called “shorties,” lasting two days or fewer.
