Ian became the ninth named storm of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season on the evening of Sept. 23. Even though it was slow to strengthen, Ian underwent rapid intensification once it become a hurricane on Monday.
Less than 24 hours later, Ian became a major hurricane, just prior to making landfall over western Cuba on Tuesday morning. While it is the fourth hurricane in the Atlantic this year, it will be the first to impact the U.S. mainland.
Even though brief interaction with land slightly weakened it, Ian remains a major hurricane in the southern Gulf of Mexico. It has already showed some strengthening, and favorable conditions will allow it to continue to strengthen as it heads toward the southwest coast of Florida.
Ian made landfall as a major hurricane just southwest of La Coloma, a town in the Pinar del Rio Province of Cuba around 4:30 a.m. on Tuesday morning.
Ian weakened slightly near Cuba, but began to strengthen again after moving into the southeastern Gulf. Estimated maximum winds are now mph.
Increasing wind shear upon landfall could weaken Ian a bit before it moves inland, but it continues to remain a major hurricane. Hurricane-force winds are expected to begin in southwest Florida on Wednesday morning.
It will make landfall along the southwest Florida coast on Wednesday, making it the first hurricane to directly hit the mainland U.S. this season.
Along with hurricane-force winds and dangerous storm surge, heavy rainfall could lead to significant flooding around central Florida through the end of the week.
Ian continues to strengthen and is forecast to become a Category 4 before landfall. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin along the southwest Florida Gulf Coast early Wednesday morning and spread inland to the rest of the peninsula through Wednesday and Thursday.
Hurricane Warnings have been extended southward along the west coast of Florida to Chokoloskee to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay. Hurricane Warnings are also in effect in the Dry Tortugas. Parts of southwest Florida and central Florida are also included in the Hurricane Warning.
Hurricane Watches and Warnings now cover a good portion of Florida’s west coast, with areas outside of that under a Tropical Storm Warning.
In addition, storm surge will also be a concern along the southwest Florida Gulf Coast as Ian draws near in the days ahead.
Parts of southwest Florida could be inundated with water levels reaching up to 3 to 6 feet above ground level in some places along the immediate coast.
Given this potential, a Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the Florida Gulf Coast extending from Tampa Bay to the Suwannee River southward to Flamingo, along with the Dry Tortugas. Warnings are also in effect along Florida’s Atlantic coast for the Flagler/Volusia County line to the mouth of the St. Mary’s River, and the St. Johns River.
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the Florida Keys, Florida Bay and the mouth of St. Mary’s River to South Santee River.
Along with all the other impacts, strong thunderstorms embedded in Ian’s outer bands could spin up tornadoes. The threat will spread up the peninsula as the hurricane moves north on Wednesday.
While there’s uncertainty regarding where Ian will make landfall, Florida’s Gulf Coast still has the highest likelihood for landfall in the U.S.
Based on the latest data and model consensus, it appears that there is more agreement that Ian’s is going to make landfall in southwest Florida. It has continued to shift south and east since the weekend, pushing the location for landfall farther south of Tampa Bay.
Even though the southern track is good news for Tampa and the west-central Florida coast, impacts can and do occur outside the forecast cone.
Regardless, Floridians and people who live along the Gulf Coast take precautions seriously.
Spaghetti models or plots show a series of individual computer forecast models together on one map. They are useful to give insight into whether multiple models are in agreement on the path of the storm but they do not address the storm’s forecast intensity, winds, flooding and storm surge potential or other data. Tap here for more details on how to best use these models.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic, there is one other disturbance with potential to develop.
See how the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season has gone so far.
