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Yellen says U.S. must raise debt limit by June 5; Biden very optimistic about negotiations

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Days from a deadline, President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy are narrowing in on a two-year budget deal aiming to curb federal deficits in exchange for lifting the nation’s debt ceiling and staving off an economically devastating government default.

In a letter to congressional leadership on Friday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen gave negotiators some much-needed breathing room, pushing back the ‘x-date’ — the day when the country can no longer fulfill its obligations — to June 5. The previous x-date, by Yellen’s estimation, was June 1.


What You Need To Know

  • Days from a deadline, President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy are narrowing in on a two-year budget deal that could unlock a vote for lifting the nation’s debt ceiling
  • Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen gave negotiators some much-needed breathing room, pushing back the ‘x-date’ — the day when the country can no longer fulfill its obligations — to June 5
  • A federal default on the nation’s debt would send the economy into chaos
  • Any compromise needs support from both Democrats and Republicans to pass in Congress

“Based on the most recent available data, we now estimate that Treasury will have insufficient resources to satisfy the government’s obligations if Congress has not raised or suspended the debt limit by June 5,” Yellen wrote in a letter to congressional leadership, urging lawmakers to take action quickly.

“We have learned from past debt limit impasses that waiting until the last minute to suspend or increase the debt limit can cause serious harm to business and consumer confidence, raise short-term borrowing costs for taxpayers, and negatively impact the credit rating of the United States,” Yellen wrote. “In fact, we have already seen Treasury’s borrowing costs increase substantially for securities maturing in early June.

“If Congress fails to increase the debt limit, it would cause severe hardship to American families, harm our global leadership position, and raise questions about our ability to defend our national security interests,” she added.

Before heading to Camp David on Friday, President Joe Biden said that “things are looking good” with the state of the debt limit negotiations.

“I’m very optimistic,” Biden told reporters, adding: “I’m hopeful we’ll know by tonight whether we are going to be able to have a deal.”

Negotiators on Friday said they were making progress, but were still far from an agreement.

“I thought we made progress last night,” McCarthy told reporters on Friday. We’ve got to make more progress.”

“I’m gonna work as hard as we can to try to get this done, get more progress today and finish the job,” he added, quipping: “I’m a total optimist.”

The Democratic president and Republican speaker hope to strike a budget compromise this weekend. With Republicans driving for steep cuts, the two sides have been unable to agree to spending levels for 2024 and 2025. Any deal would need to be a political compromise, with support from both Democrats and Republicans to pass the divided Congress.

When asked if a deal was possible Friday, McCarthy reiterated: “I’m gonna work as hard as I can. As soon as we get a deal, we’re gonna get a deal but it has to be worthy of the American people.”

But the budget flow isn’t the only hang-up.

A person familiar with the talks said the two sides are “dug in” on whether or not to agree to Republican demands to impose stiffer work requirements on people who receive government food stamps, cash assistance and health care aid, some of the most vulnerable Americans.

“There is forward progress,” North Carolina Rep. Patrick McHenry, one of McCarthy’s top GOP negotiators, told reporters on Friday. “But each time there’s forward progress, the issues that remain become more difficult and more challenging.”

McHenry warned that things can come together just as quickly as they could fall apart: “At some point this thing can come together, or go the other way.”

“Everything’s complicated,” he said. “Everybody wants the details but the larger issue here is an agreement that changes the trajectory of our nation’s finances.”

“We continue to have major issues that we have not bridged the gap on,” said Louisiana Rep. Garret Graves, McCarthy’s other top negotiator, on Friday afternoon after leaving the speaker’s office.

Yet both Biden and McCarthy expressed optimism heading into the weekend that the gulf between their positions could be bridged. A two-year deal would raise the debt limit for that time, past the 2024 presidential election.

“We knew this would not be easy,” McCarthy, R-Calif., said as he left the Capitol for the evening Thursday.

McCarthy said, “It’s hard, but we’re working and we’re going to continue to work until we get this done.”

House Republicans have pushed the issue to the brink, displaying risky political bravado in leaving town for the Memorial Day holiday. The U.S. could face an unprecedented default as soon as June 1, hurling the global economy into chaos.

In remarks at the White House, Biden said, “It’s about competing versions of America.”

“The only way to move forward is with a bipartisan agreement,” Biden said Thursday. “And I believe we’ll come to an agreement that allows us to move forward and protects the hardworking Americans of this country.”

Lawmakers are tentatively not expected back at work until Tuesday, just two days from the early June deadline when Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has said the U.S. could start running out of cash to pay its bills and face a federal default.

Biden will also be away this weekend, departing Friday for the presidential retreat at Camp David, Maryland, and Sunday for his home in Wilmington, Delaware. The Senate is on recess and will be until after Memorial Day.

Meanwhile, Fitch Ratings agency placed the United States’ AAA credit on “ratings watch negative,” warning of a possible downgrade.

Weeks of negotiations between Republicans and the White House have failed to produce a deal — in part because the Biden administration resisted negotiating with McCarthy over the debt limit, arguing that the country’s full faith and credit should not be used as leverage to extract other partisan priorities.

The White House has offered to freeze next year’s 2024 spending at current levels and restrict 2025 spending, but the Republican leader says that’s not enough.

“We have to spend less than we spent last year. That is the starting point,” said McCarthy.

One idea is to set those topline budget numbers but then add a “snap-back” provision that enforces the cuts if Congress is unable during its annual appropriations process to meet the new goals.

On work requirements for the aid recipients, the White House is particularly resisting measures that would drive Americans into poverty or take their health care, said the person familiar with the talks, who was granted anonymity to describe behind-closed-door discussions.

On the Republican demand to rescind money for the Internal Revenue Service, it’s still an “open issue” whether the sides will compromise by allowing the funding to be pushed back into other domestic programs, the person said.

Pressure is bearing down on McCarthy from the House’s right flank not to give in to any deal, even if it means blowing past the June 1 deadline.

“Let’s hold the line,” said Rep. Chip Roy, R-Texas, a Freedom Caucus member.

McCarthy said Donald Trump, the former president who is again running for office, told him, “Make sure you get a good agreement.”

Failure to raise the nation’s debt ceiling, now at $31 trillion, to pay America’s already incurred bills would risk a potentially chaotic federal default. Anxious retirees and social service groups are among those already making default contingency plans.

Even if negotiators strike a deal in coming days, McCarthy has promised lawmakers he will abide by the rule to post any bill for 72 hours before voting — now likely Tuesday or even Wednesday. The Democratic-held Senate has vowed to move quickly to send the package to Biden’s desk, right before next Thursday’s possible deadline.

In one potential development, Republicans may be easing their demand to boost defense spending, instead offering to keep it at levels the Biden administration proposed, according to another person familiar with the talks.

The teams are also eyeing a proposal to boost energy transmission line development from Sen. John Hickenlooper, D-Colo., that would facilitate the buildout of an interregional power grid, according to a person familiar with that draft. Those two people were also granted anonymity to discuss the private negotiations.

The White House has continued to argue that deficits can be reduced by ending tax breaks for wealthier households and some corporations, but McCarthy said he told the president as early as their February meeting that raising revenue from tax hikes was off the table.

While Biden has ruled out, for now, invoking the 14th Amendment to raise the debt limit on his own, Democrats in the House announced they have all signed on to a legislative “discharge” process that would force a debt ceiling vote. But they need five Republicans to break with their party and tip the majority to set the plan forward.

They are all but certain to claw back some $30 billion in unspent COVID-19 funds now that the pandemic emergency has officially been lifted.

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