While Ian weakened after making landfall and moving across Florida, it has once again strengthened into a hurricane over the Atlantic Ocean.
The latest forecast for Ian has it making its final landfall in South Carolina today as a hurricane.
Ian’s current top estimated winds are 85 mph, making it is a Category 1 hurricane again. It is briefly back in the Atlantic as it begins to bring rain to Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina and Virginia. It is forecast to remain at hurricane strength as it makes landfall later today in South Carolina.
Hurricane-force conditions are expected across coasts of South Carolina and the southern end of North Carolina, where Hurricane Warnings are in effect. Tropical Storm Warnings extend far inland in the Carolinas.
The coasts of the Carolinas are already starting to see tropical-storm-force winds move in.
In addition to the strong winds, storm surge will also be a concern for parts of the northeastern Florida coast on the Atlantic up to North Carolina. Surge there could be at least a few feet above ground level, possibly up to 7 feet in South Carolina.
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect from Florida’s Flagler/Volusia County line to Cape Fear, N.C.
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect farther north up to Duck, N.C.
Along with all the other impacts, strong thunderstorms embedded in Ian’s rain bands could spin up tornadoes. The threat will be mainly confined to eastern N.C. on Friday.
Heavy rain will lead to areas of flooding. Widespread rainfall in the Carolinas into Virginia will be at least 3 inches, with local amounts over 6 inches. These regions have a moderate risk of flash flooding.
The torrential rain that fell in Central Florida will impact that area into the first several days of October as major to record-breaking river flooding occurs.
Models are in good agreement that Ian will turn northwest and make landfall again in South Carolina today. Its remnants will eventually kick back off to the east.
Spaghetti models or plots show a series of individual computer forecast models together on one map. They are useful to give insight into whether multiple models are in agreement on the path of the storm but they do not address the storm’s forecast intensity, winds, flooding and storm surge potential or other data. Tap here for more details on how to best use these models.
Ian’s history
Ian became the ninth named storm of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season on the evening of Sept. 23. Even though it was slow to strengthen, Ian underwent rapid intensification once it become a hurricane on Monday.
Hurricane Ian made landfall in southwest Florida on Wednesday afternoon, the first hurricane to make landfall in the continental U.S. this year. Its first landfall was just after 3 p.m. on Wednesday in Cayo Costa, Fla. with max winds of 150 mph. After that, it made a second landfall as it moved inland just south of Punta Gorda near Pirate Harbor, with max winds of 145 mph.
This aerial photo shows damaged homes and debris in the aftermath of Hurricane Ian, Thursday, Sept. 29, 2022, in Fort Myers Beach, Fla. (AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee)
A weather station near Port Charlotte reported a sustained wind of 115 mph with a wind gust of 132 mph as Ian made landfall
Parts of southwest Florida, including Naples, were inundated with high water on Wednesday as Ian came ashore.
Surge was highest near Ian’s center, and considerably lower farther north toward Tampa Bay.
Parts of southwest Florida reported storm surge up to 12 to 18 feet inundation in spots.
Sanibel Island saw waters rise extremely quickly as Ian made its way onshore.
Areas of Central Florida had a deluge of rain with numerous locations getting over a foot. That caused widespread flooding, prompting dozens of water rescues.
See what the damage looked like throughout Florida.
Before hitting the U.S., Ian made landfall as a major hurricane just southwest of La Coloma, Cuba, a town in the Pinar del Rio Province around 4:30 a.m. on Tuesday morning.
Fallen utility poles and fallen branches line a street after Hurricane Ian hit Pinar del Rio, Cuba, Tuesday, Sept. 27, 2022. Ian made landfall at 4:30 a.m. EDT Tuesday in Cuba’s Pinar del Rio province, where officials set up shelters, evacuated people, rushed in emergency personnel and took steps to protect crops in the nation’s main tobacco-growing region. (AP Photo/Ramon Espinosa)
Ian weakened slightly after passing over western Cuba, but still maintained its major hurricane status as it moved north into the Gulf. After completing an eyewall replacement cycle Tuesday night, Ian became a Category 4 hurricane early Wednesday morning.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic, there is one tropical wave we are monitoring.
See how the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season has gone so far.
