When the Taliban raised their flag over Afghanistan’s capital Sunday night, it perhaps revealed the first crack of a broader tectonic shift in U.S. military policy.
President Joe Biden made his view unmistakable Monday: U.S. forces will not return to fight on behalf of Afghans as they have for the last two decades.
In the background of that decision: a broader Pentagon review of its forces around the globe and a potential shift in defense priorities, with the spotlight on the Middle East now also shining on China and Russia.
The withdrawal from Afghanistan, which became an urgent evacuation this week, is still expected to be complete by Aug. 31, defense officials said, marking the end of the 20-year conflict and the United States’ mainstay role in the country.
President Biden’s April announcement of the exit was followed by another on Iraq in July, when the president confirmed the U.S. would draw down its combat role there by the end of the year.
As the U.S. presence in the Middle East shrinks, where does the Pentagon focus next? And how will the shift be felt around the world?
Afghanistan marks first military shift
“If we had just left a small force there, it’s kind of like an insurance premium,” said Rep. Michael Waltz, R-Fla., a Green Beret who served in Afghanistan. “You pay that premium to have a small force there, so you don’t have catastrophic accidents or events.”
Waltz and other lawmakers were quick to criticize the rapid withdrawal, not only for its internal impact but for its potential effect on counterterrorism efforts more broadly.
“I just think we’re going to see a repeat of what we saw in Iraq, where the terrorist groups come roaring back,” Waltz said.
Senior U.S. officials said Tuesday that the United States still hopes to complete its mission in Afghanistan by Aug. 31.
In Iraq, the U.S. has maintained a presence of about 2,500 troops to assist Iraqi forces, but those troops will shift from a combat to advisory role by the end of the year, President Biden announced in July, effectively ending the mission there.
But that doesn’t mean the U.S. military presence in the Middle East will disappear.
“There’s certainly less focus on the immediate terrorist threats in Afghanistan and in Iraq,” said Anthony Cordesman, who served as a consultant to the Departments of State and Defense during the Afghanistan and Iraq wars.
“But the basic U.S. positions in places like Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Jordan — these positions remain,” he added. “And if you look at the personnel assigned there, they have not been reduced.”
The Pentagon’s global reassessment
Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin initiated in February a “global force posture review,” which directed defense officials to survey the military’s footprint abroad, including troops’ size and locations.
The posture review, which is expected to be complete by the fall, would contribute to a new national defense strategy and reconfigure soldiers around the world.
“This review will help inform the secretary’s advice to the commander-in-chief about how we best allocate military forces in pursuit of our national interests,” Pentagon press secretary John Kirby said at the time.
One objective: address emerging threats like China and Russia while still balancing security in the Middle East.
“This kind of review is overdue. We have, in some ways, not really planned for ending the wars and what the aftermath will be,” said Cordesman, who also serves as the Burke Chair in Strategy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
The Biden administration has signaled that it sees China as a primary focus going forward.
“China is increasing its military capability at a very serious and sustained rate,” Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Mark Milley told Senators in June. “We must ensure that we retain our competitive and technological edge against this pacing threat.”
Rep. Waltz, who serves on the House Armed Services Committee, agrees: “That shift to China is absolutely critical.”
To modernize that approach, President Biden has requested $112 billion for “research, development, testing and evaluation” in his 2022 defense budget. It is the “largest ever” request of its kind, Defense Secretary Austin said.
Potential fallout of a U.S. shift
While concerns about reemerging terrorist threats are valid, experts say, it’s too early to assess the impact of the Afghanistan withdrawal.
“Terrorism is often driven outside the United States by internal power struggles in the developing world,” Cordesman said. “There’s no easy way to predict how far they escalate.”
National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan acknowledged the fluidity of security threats on Tuesday.
“We are going to have to deal with the potential threat of terrorism from Afghanistan going forward, just as we have to deal with the potential threat of terrorism in dozens of countries in multiple continents around the world,” he told reporters at the White House.
Others, like Rep. Waltz warned that terrorist groups like al-Qaida will take immediate advantage of the U.S. exit.
“The intelligence community is clear that al-Qaida still intends to attack the West, that al-Qaida and the Taliban are still working together,” he told Spectrum News.
Outside Afghanistan, the humanitarian needs of Afghans could be felt first, said Hallam Ferguson, who oversaw U.S. foreign aid to the Middle East under the Trump administration.
“Certainly you’re going to see many more Afghan refugees, many more Afghans displaced and much increase in humanitarian needs there,” Ferguson, a public policy fellow at the Wilson Center, told Spectrum News.
Ferguson also said aid workers in the region will struggle to access people in need.
“As Afghanistan becomes more chaotic, becomes more unstable, more regions will become inaccessible to those humanitarian actors,” he added. “That’s going to cause greater suffering among many people.”
On Monday, the Pentagon confirmed it is preparing to temporarily house up to 22,000 Afghans who served alongside U.S. forces and their families. They’ll stay at military bases inside the United States as their visas are processed.
Refugee agencies across the U.S. were also preparing to settle thousands more as evacuations from Afghanistan continue.
Defense officials said they were working to ramp up flights out of the country to total 5,000 to 9,000 people relocated per day, including American citizens, Afghans who worked for the U.S. and other vulnerable civilians.
