First, a word about tonight. A major hurricane is bearing down on Texas and Louisiana. How it affects the finale of the Republican National Convention, and President Donald Trump’s speech, is unclear.
Now, a word about last night.
Vice President Mike Pence’s speech foreshadowed the President’s this evening – and with his confident delivery, Pence may even have ultimately communicated the animating issues of this campaign better than Trump himself.
It was not just a robust defense of law enforcement – it was a stark warning that Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden endangers American life.
“Joe Biden would double down on the very policies that are leading to violence in America’s cities,” Pence said.
“The hard truth is you won’t be safe in Joe Biden’s America. Under President Trump, we will always stand with those who stand on the Thin Blue Line, and we’re not going to defund the police – not now, not ever.”
(Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden has said he does not support defunding the police, telling ABC News, “I don’t want to defund police departments. I think they need more help, they need more assistance.”)
Pence nodded to African-American concerns: a commitment “to improve the quality of life in our cities and towns.”
Pence did not go further, even as the shooting of Jacob Blake is adding to a national reckoning of the frayed trust between Black Americans and police.
There was more – a bleak, if a bit ambiguous, warning about the Democratic ticket.
“Last week, Joe Biden said democracy is on the ballot and the truth is our economic recovery is on the ballot, law and order are on the ballot. But so are things far more fundamental and foundational to our country,” he said.
“In this election, It’s not so much whether America will be more conservative or more liberal, more Republican or more Democrat. The choice in this election is whether America remains America.”
And in America, presidential elections are determined by the Electoral College, not the popular vote, as you may remember from civics lessons.
In close elections, that could leave only a few states determining the outcome. This year, and to varying degrees, they are thought to be: Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania – and perhaps Ohio (which is trending more Republican), Georgia and Texas (which hasn’t opted for the Democratic candidate since 1992 and 1976 respectively).
As it turns out, I have a number of extremely smart and plugged-in Spectrum News colleagues in a few of this year’s swing states and another who has been covering and overseeing convention coverage for 20 years.
As they did a week ago when the Democrats were (virtually) convening, here are their lightly edited assessments of how the Republicans pitch to the nation is playing in the ultra-important states they cover.
TIM BOYUM, POLITICAL ANCHOR, SPECTRUM NEWS 1 NORTH CAROLINA, HOST OF “CAPITAL TONIGHT” AND THE “TYING IT TOGETHER” PODCAST
In many ways, this convention is a perfect synopsis of the entire campaign. Democrats are crying foul and believe President Trump is abusing his power by utilizing the White House. His critics complain he is not offering any vision for the future and is utilizing conspiracy theories and controversial speakers to distract from the issues created by Covid-19.
Meanwhile, Republicans wholeheartedly believe the convention is offering a positive vision for the country while pointing out how disastrous they believe a Joe Biden presidency would impact the nation.
Will any of it matter? Political scientists still argue if there are swing voters in a state like North Carolina, it will be suburban women. Are they watching? Will anything said this week change their mind? Probably not. Same goes for last week’s convention.
This is likely to be a huge base and turnout election, so perhaps it’s playing a larger role in rallying those who have already decided their vote. The key is making sure those people vote-by mail, early voting, or in-person on election day.
JASON FECHNER, ANCHOR, SPECTRUM NEWS 1 WISCONSIN
Republicans continue to hammer away at the fact that Joe Biden wasn’t in Wisconsin last week (where the DNC was originally supposed to be before COVID-19 struck). At the RNC, Wisconsin continues to get more than its fair share of mentions and speakers. From farmers to metal shop owners, the RNC is being very deliberate to show the Badger State some love during the convention, but whether or not that resonates with undecided voters, we’ll have to wait and see.
As for the untraditional and norm-shattering approach of hosting convention events at the White House and airing Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s speech shot on a U.S. diplomatic trip, my hunch is that in this already-polarized political climate, Trump supporters in Wisconsin don’t mind and Trump’s critics will say it’s just the most recent display of violations of The Hatch Act.
I think undecided voters are more keyed into the messaging and likely— likely— not paying much attention to the backdrop or optics.
BOB HARDT, POLITICAL DIRECTOR, SPECTRUM NEWS NY1
The Republican convention was supposed to be positive but with the notable exception of Melania Trump, it’s been a doom-and-gloom party that’s relentlessly attacked Joe Biden.
The tone was struck first by the president on Monday afternoon when he addressed delegates and said that the only way he can lose in November is if the Democrats rig the election, laying the groundwork for chaos.
There’s also an elimination of any division between public servant and political animal at this convention. The president isn’t just using the trappings of his office to promote his campaign, he’s using its power, issuing a pardon and swearing-in five citizens. I’m half-expecting to sign a trade treaty next.
It’s certainly been a mega-reality TV show that could help the president get re-elected but there’s a chance that the convention could suffer from Trump overload. The Republican Party risks looking more like a cult of personality than an organization that will presumably exist long after Trump leaves office.
The Democratic convention had many stars over four days and this convention could almost be dubbed “The Trump Bunch.” The president’s supporters probably love it but I’m not sure that the small number of wavering voters just want The Donald for four days.
CURTIS JACKSON, POLITICAL ANCHOR, SPECTRUM NEWS 1 OHIO
The RNC needed to sow doubt after the DNC successfully assailed Trump’s character. The Republicans are effectively, if not superficially, responding to each charge.
But they still have a problem: Donald Trump.
All of the hard work the RNC is doing to make him appear more empathetic, to rewrite his and this country’s history on race, and to lay blame for the administration’s pandemic response on China won’t matter if he goes back to business as usual next week.
Give them credit for going after Biden for the 1994 Crime Bill (which is far more nuanced than critics admit), his gaffes about race, and his blue collar image. But none of it matters if screens play on a loop the shootings of unarmed Black men by police, if Trump continues to ignore the rising body count of the pandemic, and if more people continue to lose their jobs while he crows about the stock market.
Voters may be prone to group thinking and identity politics. But everyone has survival instincts. And if it’s him or them? It’s going to be him.
KARINA KLING, POLITICAL ANCHOR, SPECTRUM NEWS AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO AND HOST OF “CAPITAL TONIGHT”
While the TV ratings have plunged for both conventions compared to 2016, it’s been interesting to have the “audience” perspective since we didn’t send a crew there due to the pandemic. Both the DNC and RNC have been well-orchestrated events but lack the excitement that would come with roaring applause from the delegates and the energy of the crowded convention hall.
Still, here in Texas, Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden got a post-convention bump in polling. A Public Policy Polling survey released this week had Biden with a one percentage point lead over President Donald Trump in the state. Democrats have created much fanfare around the state being the biggest battleground this election cycle.
But Trump won Texas in 2016 by 9 points and Republicans have carried the state in 10 consecutive presidential elections.
Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, who also serves as Trump’s Texas campaign chairman, said in an interview on Tuesday on Capital Tonight that he’s confident Trump will again carry the state echoing a line Trump used on Monday at the RNC saying Texans won’t vote for Democrats because they’re for “no religion, no guns, no oil and gas.”
Breaking with precedent, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo addressed the RNC in pre-recorded remarks from Jerusalem. Sitting secretaries typically avoid partisan politics, particularly while abroad.
Texas Rep. Joaquin Castro has even opened an investigation into Pompeo’s speech citing the Hatch Act and State Department guidance. While it may be a big break from tradition, it doesn’t appear to be swaying voters one way of the other.
